devig — sports trading on Polymarket and Hyperliquid

01 / WHAT DEVIG DOES

How a parlay gets its price.

Someone asks for a parlay.
Say a bettor wants three teams to win this weekend, all on one ticket. There is no ready-made price for that exact combination, so the exchange asks traders like devig to quote one.
devig works out the fair odds.
The most accurate bookmakers publish odds with their own cut, the “vig”, built in. devig strips that cut out (hence the name) to get the real chance of each result, then combines them into one price for the whole ticket. It also checks that the picks do not secretly depend on each other in a way it cannot price.
The best price wins.
If devig’s offer is the best one and the bettor accepts, devig takes the other side of the bet. If someone else’s price is better, nothing happens. Every price carries a small margin: over thousands of tickets, that margin is what devig aims to earn.

02 / WHERE DEVIG TRADES

Two exchanges.

PolymarketParlays

The prediction market where devig started. It prices parlays on request and takes the other side.
In the record below
HyperliquidSports markets

A crypto exchange with sports markets. devig puts up standing prices there for other traders to take.
Not in the public record

03 / HOW IT IS GRADED

Winning is not the test. The price is.

Most parlays lose—that is why they pay so well—so a high win rate is normal and proves very little on its own. Neither does a hot month: one tournament taught me that the hard way.

The real test is the price. Odds keep moving until a game starts, and the final odds just before kickoff are the best estimate anyone has. If devig’s prices keep beating those final odds, it is pricing well, whoever ends up winning. Bettors call this closing-line value.

Bets taken during a game have no final odds to compare against, so they are checked against the fair price at the moment of the trade.

04 / WHAT IS PUBLISHED HERE

Finished parlays only, published late on purpose.

Every parlay in this record is over. A ticket appears only after its games have finished, its result is final and a further delay has passed—nothing live, nothing pending. The numbers at the top count every finished ticket since the record began; the table shows the latest ones.

The record covers devig’s parlays. Trading on Hyperliquid is not included.

05 / WHY THIS EXISTS

Built solo · measured honestly

Finding the empty market.

“No number goes on this page until I’ve tried to break it first.”

I traded at Pinnacle, then ran sports as Head of Sports at a crypto casino. When Polymarket’s sports markets got busy, I went looking for something nobody was doing yet and found it on day one: nobody was pricing parlays.

So I built a bot that does. Solo, with a lot of help from Claude—and it worked. The World Cup was very good to me.

Then I went back and asked whether that was skill or weather. It was weather: outside the World Cup, the same edge is too small to tell apart from luck. That was the most useful thing I learned all year, and it changed how I measure everything. I grade the price, not the result, and I publish results only after they are final.

I’m one person up against professional betting syndicates. My advantage is not size—it is finding a new market on day one and figuring it out by Friday. That is why devig started on Polymarket and now trades on Hyperliquid too.

The operating principle Growth comes from breadth, not from betting bigger.

— parlays settled — won by devig since —

RFQ Combo Bets

You bet the parlay. devig takes the other side.