devig — fair pricing on Polymarket

01 / WHAT DEVIG DOES

From bookmaker odds to a fair parlay price.

“Devigging” means taking bookmaker odds—which usually imply probabilities adding up to more than 100%—and removing the margin. What remains is a margin-free view of how likely each outcome is.

Sharp books do the hard work of pricing. devig borrows that work, prices each leg from de-vigged sharp odds, checks that the legs are not secretly the same bet twice—or otherwise dependent in a way it cannot price—and turns them into a quote for the entire parlay. Win the RFQ auction and the ticket goes on the book. Lose it and nothing happens.

There is a CLOB bot, too.

Alongside RFQ quoting, devig runs a market-making bot on Polymarket’s central limit order book. It estimates fair value from sharp-market prices, quotes around it, and trades when the available price compensates for risk.

02 / HOW IT IS GRADED

The result is noisy. The price is the test.

Short-run settled profit is mostly weather. A hot month proves very little, and one tournament taught me that the hard way.

Where a clean closing line exists, the book is judged primarily on closing-line value: the price devig traded versus where the sharp market closed. That value is set before the event starts and does not care who won.

Live markets are measured against fair value at the time of the trade, because there is no meaningful closing line once the event is under way.

03 / WHAT IS PUBLISHED HERE

A settled record, without exposing the live book.

Every ticket in this record has already settled. RFQ tickets appear only after the event has resolved and an additional delay has passed—nothing live and nothing pending. The headline count and win rate come directly from the full eligible settled archive; the table may show only its most recent slice.

This record covers RFQ tickets. CLOB market-making performance is tracked separately.

04 / WHY THIS EXISTS

Built solo · measured honestly

Finding the empty market.

“No number goes on this page until I’ve tried to break it first.”

I traded at Pinnacle, then ran sports as Head of Sports at a crypto casino. When Polymarket’s sports book got liquid, I went looking for something nobody was doing yet and found it on day one: nobody was making markets on combos.

So I built one. Solo, with a lot of help from Claude—and it worked. The World Cup was very good to me.

Then I went back and asked whether that was skill or weather. It was weather. The edge that printed through the World Cup does not clear significance outside it. That was the most useful thing I learned all year, and it changed how I measure everything: closing-line value instead of settlement P&L, and results published only after they settle.

I’m one person against syndicates. The advantage is not size—it is finding a new market on day one and figuring it out by Friday.

The operating principle Growth comes from breadth, not from betting bigger.

— settled RFQ tickets — win rate since —

RFQ Combo Bets